When Currency Moves the Market: How Exchange Rates Are Shaping Green Coffee Trade

Currency fluctuations are playing a quieter but increasingly important role in the global green coffee market. According to the International Coffee Organization, coffee is traded almost entirely in U.S. dollars, meaning shifts in local currencies can significantly impact producer pricing and export decisions. In 2024, major producing countries such as Brazil and Colombia experienced notable currency volatility, which directly influenced farmgate prices and exporter margins. For buyers and sellers, exchange rates are becoming a key factor alongside supply and demand fundamentals.

A stronger U.S. dollar can put pressure on producing countries by lowering local returns, even when global coffee prices are high. Data from the World Bank shows that currency depreciation in several Latin American and African origins temporarily boosted exports by making coffee more competitive internationally. However, this can also strain producers facing rising local costs for labor, fertilizer, and logistics. As a result, currency movements often affect not just how much coffee is sold, but when it is released to the market.

For the green coffee trade, understanding currency dynamics is now part of effective risk management. Traders increasingly factor exchange trends into contract timing, origin selection, and pricing strategies. Rabobank reports that companies actively monitoring currency exposure are better equipped to navigate price volatility and protect margins. As financial conditions remain uncertain, currency movements will continue to influence the availability and flow of green coffee worldwide.