Coffee Market Waves: Global Supply Strains, Surging Demand & Premium Growth

The global coffee landscape continues to evolve, with demand reaching all time highs despite mounting supply challenges. Worldwide consumption is projected to reach 169.4 million 60 kg bags in the 2025/2026 season, marking a new record driven by strong consumer interest across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. This sustained growth highlights the resilience of coffee demand even as producing regions face climate volatility and yield uncertainty. For green coffee buyers and sellers, understanding these demand dynamics is increasingly critical for long term planning.

Supply constraints are reshaping market behavior and price structures across origins. Extreme weather events, including prolonged droughts in Brazil and excessive rainfall in Vietnam, have disrupted production cycles and reduced export availability. As a result, both arabica and robusta futures have experienced significant volatility, tightening inventories and increasing procurement risks for roasters and traders alike. These conditions are reinforcing the need for diversified sourcing strategies and closer relationships at origin.

Despite short-term pressures, the long term outlook for coffee remains positive, especially for specialty and value added segments. The global coffee market was valued at approximately USD 269 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 369 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 5.3 percent. Premiumization, sustainability, and traceability are becoming central drivers of value, offering opportunities for wholesale buyers and sellers to differentiate through quality and transparency. For green coffee stakeholders, aligning with these trends is key to remaining competitive in a rapidly evolving market.