Brewing Under Pressure: How Climate Volatility Is Reshaping Green Coffee Supply

Climate volatility is becoming one of the most decisive forces in the global coffee market, directly influencing yields, quality, and long-term availability. According to the International Coffee Organization, adverse weather events contributed to a global coffee supply deficit of more than 5 million bags in the 2023/24 season, with impacts extending through 2025.

Key producing countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, and Costa Rica have experienced irregular rainfall, prolonged dry periods, and higher temperatures, increasing uncertainty for traders and wholesale buyers. For green coffee professionals, climate risk is now a central market variable rather than a background concern.

Scientific data underscores the magnitude of the challenge ahead. Research from World Coffee Research and the IPCC suggests that up to 50% of land currently suitable for arabica coffee could be lost by 2050 under current climate scenarios. In Costa Rica, where arabica accounts for nearly 100% of national production, climate stress has already contributed to lower yields and rising production costs, according to ICAFE and FAO data. Across origins, FAO statistics show that year to year production volatility has intensified over the past decade, directly affecting supply consistency and pricing.

In response, producing countries and supply chain actors are accelerating adaptation efforts. Costa Rica has emerged as a regional reference point through investments in climate smart agriculture, shade management, and improved varieties, while traders globally are diversifying origins and contract structures to spread risk.

For wholesale buyers and sellers, understanding climate exposure at origin including smaller but quality-driven origins like Costa Rica is now essential for sourcing strategy, pricing decisions, and long term supply security. Climate resilience has become not only a sustainability objective, but a commercial imperative in the future of green coffee.