Tariffs Meet Drought: A Turning Point for Global Green Coffee Trade

Global green coffee trade is facing mounting strain as environmental and geopolitical shocks converge. The Trump administration’s “Liberation Day” tariff package, implemented in August 2025, imposes a 50 % duty on Brazilian coffee, which accounts for roughly one third of U.S. imports, nearly 8 million bags annually, forcing buyers to reconsider sourcing strategies and pricing models (reuters.com).

At the same time, supply shocks from severe droughts in Brazil and Vietnam are already pushing raw bean prices higher, reaching record levels that are cascading throughout the supply chain (apnews.com).

These combined pressures are squeezing margins across the value chain. Earlier in 2025, wholesale Arabica prices reached a record US $4.30 per pound, up 100 % from the previous year, driven by reduced yields and logistical bottlenecks amid growing demand, especially as consumption increases in regions like China (marketwatch.com).

For wholesale buyers and roasters, higher input costs and trade disruptions are prompting urgent reviews of origin strategies.

For green coffee traders, the priority is clear: diversify sourcing, strengthen supplier relationships, and secure flexible contracts to reduce exposure to volatility. Exploring alternative regions such as Central America or Africa and forming direct partnerships with producers can help maintain resilience against market shocks.

By adopting agile, data informed procurement practices today, businesses can safeguard both supply and profitability in the changing global coffee landscape.