Scarcity & Innovation: Why Green Coffee Is at the Crossroads in Mid-2025

The global green coffee market is entering a pivotal moment: after reaching an estimated US $38.2 billion in 2024, it's projected to grow to US $39.8 billion in 2025, with further expansion to US $47.8 billion by 2029 a solid ~4.6% CAGR through 2029. Europe currently leads the market in size, while the Asia-Pacific region is emerging as the fastest-growing frontier for green coffee demand. This upward trajectory reflects shifts toward single-origin and micro-lot coffees, growing interest in organics and health-conscious blends, and evolving consumer preferences worldwide.

Meanwhile, supply-side pressures are mounting. Persistent droughts in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, accounting for around 35% of global consumption, have slashed yields and sparked a coffee deficit, with the world consuming roughly 750,000 metric tons more than it produced over the past three years (equivalent to about 7% of annual supply). In response, many Brazilian farmers are investing heavily in irrigation, even though only around 30% of coffee fields are irrigated, to stabilize yields. On one large irrigated Bahia farm, yields have doubled to about 80 bags per hectare, significantly above the national average.

In this context of supply uncertainty, geopolitical factors are adding fresh volatility. Recent U.S. tariffs ranging from 10% to as high as 50% on Brazilian coffee are reshaping import economics and could further elevate green coffee prices for wholesale buyers. For traders, roasters, and wholesalers, this means reassessing origin strategies, deepening direct-farmer partnerships, and exploring diverse regions to mitigate risk. As both scarcity and innovation drive market dynamics, staying agile and well-informed, is key to thriving in the evolving green coffee landscape.