From Bean to Balance Sheet: What Soaring Green-Coffee Prices Mean for Traders & Roasters

Global coffee markets are moving through a period of disruption. According to the International Coffee Organization, global demand continues to rise, with the green coffee market valued at USD 38.23 billion in 2024 and projected to reach USD 39.53 billion in 2025 (The Business Research Company). At the same time, the broader coffee market, including roasted, instant, and ready to drink formats, was estimated at USD 269.27 billion in 2024 and is forecast to grow to USD 369.46 billion by 2030 (Grand View Research). Rising costs reflect more than demand alone, as global inventories are tightening and green coffee stocks have fallen to their lowest levels since 2018 (Voronoi).

Much of the pressure comes from shifting supply dynamics. While global green coffee production increased modestly in 2024 compared to 2023, output remains below the peak reached in 2022 (Voronoi). At the same time, producers are facing increased climate volatility, higher logistics costs, and ongoing supply chain disruptions, all of which analysts identify as key constraints on consistent access to high quality coffee (Data Bridge Market Research). For buyers and traders, this means securing reliable supply and favorable terms will require more proactive sourcing strategies.

Not all signals point to risk. Higher prices and tighter supply are accelerating changes in sourcing models and sustainability practices across the industry. World Coffee Research highlights growing global collaboration around varietal development, climate resilient crops, and improved farm and nursery programs. These efforts are enabling producers and exporters in Central America, East Africa, and emerging origins to build more resilient supply chains while offering roasters traceable, high quality green coffee lots. For wholesale buyers and sellers, this moment presents both a challenge and an opportunity to invest in long term relationships and differentiate supply through quality, sustainability, and consistency.