EU Deforestation Rules Shake Up Green Coffee Trade: Time to Adapt

New European Union deforestation regulations, effective December 2024, now require coffee importers to certify that their supply chains are deforestation free.

This change could significantly reduce Ethiopia’s exports, which account for 37% of its export earnings and are heavily dependent on European markets (lemonde.fr).

The shift puts smallholder farmers at risk, as many lack the digital tools, land records, or internet access needed to comply.

Compliance with these rules is not optional for long, and companies must quickly adapt or risk losing access to a major market, especially since Europe was the largest region in the green coffee market as of 2024 (thebusinessresearchcompany.com).

Amid these regulatory pressures, the green coffee market continues to grow steadily. Forecasts estimate that the global market size will rise from approximately US $38.3 billion in 2024 to US $52.7 billion by 2033, reflecting a CAGR of around 3.6% (imarcgroup.com).

Demand is driven by trends toward single origin and micro lot coffees, organic offerings, and health oriented blends. These preferences align closely with the traceability and sustainability requirements that the EU rules are designed to enforce (thebusinessresearchcompany.com).

For traders, wholesalers, and roasters, the way forward is clear. Building strong partnerships with exporters who can demonstrate traceable and sustainable practices, particularly through technology like satellite mapping and farm registries, will be essential.

Expanding sourcing to include countries better prepared for EU compliance can help safeguard access to European buyers. Adapting now will not only protect trade continuity but also position businesses to meet the growing consumer demand for environmentally responsible coffee.