Drought-Resistant Coffee: Brewing the Future of Green Coffee Supplies

Global green coffee markets are under pressure following sharp price increases. The World Bank projects a more than 50% year-on-year surge in Arabica prices in 2025, followed by an estimated 15% drop in 2026, reflecting volatile supply conditions and growing climate risks (news.italianfood.net).

Coffee producers and traders are navigating this roller coaster, working to manage rising costs while seeking stability through diversified sourcing and forward contracts.

A promising solution is emerging through innovative research on drought resistant coffee varieties. At the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, scientists are developing climate resilient coffees such as Excelsa and Stenophylla.

Already grown on 200 farms in Uganda, Excelsa has passed taste evaluations, while Stenophylla shows unique resilience and potential as a caffeine alternative (thetimes.co.uk).

With flagship varieties like Arabica becoming increasingly vulnerable to drought and heat, these alternatives offer both resilience and new flavor opportunities.

For traders, roasters, and wholesale buyers, investing in resilient coffee genetics could be transformative. Supporting producers who cultivate these varieties and forming early partnerships can provide a competitive edge in maintaining quality and supply during climate disruptions.

By committing today to diverse, climate resilient sources, the industry can secure tomorrow’s green coffee supply and bring innovative, future focused beans to market.