Under the Global Lens: How Far Will the Green Coffee Price Tide Rise in 2025

Steady Growth in the Global Green Coffee MarketThe global green coffee market continues its steady climb, projected to reach US $39.82 billion in 2025, up from US $38.23 billion the previous year, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2 % (researchandmarkets.com).

If this trend holds, the market is expected to hit US $47.75 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 4.6 % (researchandmarkets.com). Key growth drivers include rising demand for organic coffee, preference for micro-lots and single origins, and the boom in cold brew and wellness-oriented products (researchandmarkets.com).

Supply Demands and Retail Cost PressuresWholesale prices are facing ongoing pressure. In February 2025, arabica coffee prices reached a record US $4.30 per pound, doubling last year’s levels (nypost.com).

At the same time, the international coffee benchmark stood at around US $314.82 per pound on August 12, 2025, down 1.8 % from the day before but still up 2.98 % month-over-month and 35.5 % year-to-date (tradingeconomics.com). These increases create a tense environment for wholesale buyers and sellers, straining operations across the supply chain.

Climate, Trade, and Mitigation StrategiesThis price escalation is fueled by extreme weather events in Brazil and Vietnam, combined with geopolitical frictions and logistical bottlenecks in key trade routes like the Red Sea and the Suez Canal (washingtonpost.com).

Both buyers and sellers are being pushed to diversify sourcing and consider direct-trade contracts at origin to stabilize prices. Responsible sourcing initiatives and resilient practices, such as sustainable certifications or strategic partnerships, may become critical levers for ensuring supply, transparency, and a competitive edge in the global market.