Why Coffee Yields Are Falling in Some Origins and What It Means for Buyers

Across several major coffee producing regions, yields per hectare are showing signs of stagnation or decline, raising concerns for future supply. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), global coffee production averages roughly 0.7 to 1.0 metric tons of green coffee per hectare, but productivity varies widely depending on farm management, climate conditions, and tree age. In many producing countries, a large share of coffee trees are more than 20 years old, well beyond their most productive years. Older trees produce fewer cherries and are often more vulnerable to disease and climate stress.

Climate variability is adding another layer of pressure on yields. Research from World Coffee Research shows that rising temperatures and irregular rainfall patterns are already affecting flowering cycles and cherry development in several producing regions. Even small changes in temperature can reduce productivity or shift ideal growing elevations higher up mountainsides. As a result, some regions are experiencing lower yields per hectare despite stable or even increasing planted area, which can tighten global supply over time.

For green coffee buyers and traders, this trend highlights the importance of long term relationships with producing partners. Replanting programs, improved varieties, and better agronomic practices are becoming essential investments to maintain future supply. Many producing countries are already promoting renovation programs to replace aging trees with more productive and climate resilient varieties. Understanding these structural challenges helps buyers anticipate supply shifts and support producers who are working to maintain both quality and productivity in the years ahead.