Two Consecutive Strong Harvests Needed to Rebuild Global Coffee Stocks

At the Coffee Dinner & Summit in Brazil, industry experts warned that rebuilding global coffee inventories will require at least two consecutive strong harvests, despite expectations for a large crop in Brazil, the world’s leading producer and exporter. This reflects the cumulative impact of supply deficits over the past few years. (reuters.com)

Luiz Fernando dos Reis of Cooxupe emphasized that “I don’t believe stocks can be rebuilt from this year to the next; it will take at least two good harvests” to return to previous levels. (reuters.com) Charles Chiapolino of Louis Dreyfus added that achieving favorable weather conditions for two straight years is “almost impossible.” (reuters.com)

It was also highlighted that stable or growing global demand prevents stocks from being rebuilt quickly, as noted by German Bahamon of the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation. (reuters.com) In addition, Cooxupe warned that even if the 2026/27 harvest is strong, arabica’s biennial cycle could make the following year less productive, further complicating recovery. (reuters.com)