Supply Strains and Soaring Prices: Navigating 2025’s Green Coffee Roller Coaster

Global green coffee markets are tightening significantly, reflected in consumption trends heading toward 13 million tonnes and a market value of US $52.2 billion by 2035, growing at a modest CAGR of 1.8% from 2024 to 2035 (indexbox.io).

At the same time, prices are experiencing rapid hikes, with Arabica futures surging over 70% in 2024 and peaking beyond US $4.39 per pound in early 2025 (gotyoursixcoffee.com). For wholesale buyers and traders, these figures signal urgency as low growth, soaring costs, and supply volatility converge to reshape sourcing strategies.

At the heart of these pressures lie climate and trade disruptions. Severe droughts in top producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam continue to shrink yields, while U.S. tariffs already at 10% across major origins and with potential to increase add another layer of cost uncertainty (apnews.com).

This combination is causing raw bean prices to more than double in some segments, forcing roasters and wholesalers to adapt quickly to shifting economics and logistical constraints.

To stay resilient, green coffee traders must pivot strategically. Diversifying origin portfolios beyond climate impacted regions and fostering direct sourcing partnerships can help stabilize supply.

Additionally, securing forward contracts or investing in price hedging tools provides protective buffers against volatility. In today’s unpredictable market, agility, transparency, and proactive sourcing are not just beneficial, they are essential for securing both supply and margins.