When the Rains Don’t Come: Drought Puts Costa Rica’s Coffee Crop Under Pressure

Costa Rica’s coffee farms are entering a critical stretch of the 2026 growing season with one essential ingredient in shorter supply: rain. The country’s National Meteorological Institute (IMN) forecasts rainfall from August through October 2026 to run as much as 40% below normal across the Central Valley, Central Pacific, South Pacific and western Northern Zone, while the North Pacific could see deficits of up to 60%. These conditions matter because Costa Rican coffee relies on a well defined dry season followed by consistent rains to stimulate flowering and support cherry development; ICAFE specifically notes that this seasonal pattern is one of the factors that favors flowering in regions such as Los Santos. When rainfall arrives late or inconsistently, flowering can become less uniform, leaving producers with cherries developing at different speeds and a more complicated harvest ahead.

The production numbers already show how vulnerable Costa Rica’s supply has become, although drought should not be viewed as the only cause. ICAFE recorded a definitive 1,812,628 fanegas for the 2024/25 crop and currently estimates 1,763,951 fanegas for 2025/26, a decline of roughly 2.7%; by July 13, approximately 1.59 million fanegas, or 90.27% of that estimate, had been reported. The regional picture is even more striking: Los Santos, Costa Rica’s largest producing area, is estimated at 632,883 fanegas for 2025/26 compared with 806,474 in the previous crop, a drop of about 21.5%, while other regions such as Valle Occidental have performed considerably better. Weather is only part of that story. Biennial production cycles, labor availability and farm economics also influence output, but increasingly irregular rainfall is adding another layer of uncertainty for growers and green coffee buyers.

The concern now shifts toward the 2026/27 crop, because the latest short term IMN outlook expects dry conditions across the Pacific, Central Valley and western Northern Zone from August 17 through at least September 13, with El Niño strengthening the rainfall deficit in some areas. For coffee trees carrying developing fruit, prolonged moisture stress can limit vegetative growth and place additional pressure on cherry development, while uneven rainfall can complicate the flowering cycle that ultimately determines the following harvest. Costa Rica’s Ministry of Agriculture is already promoting water conservation, protection of water sources and other preventive measures as the agricultural sector prepares for higher temperatures and longer dry periods associated with El Niño. For importers and roasters, the takeaway is increasingly important: Costa Rican coffee may remain small in global volume, but tighter and more variable weather conditions could make dependable quantities of specific regions, qualities and preparations increasingly valuable.